基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的货物吞吐量预测应用——以湛江港口为例

Application of Cargo Throughput Prediction Based on Grey System Theory GM(1,1)Model--Take Zhanjiang Port as an Example

湛江依托优越的地理位置和资源,在“一带一路”和推进粤港澳大湾区的建设中发挥了举足轻重的作用。港口发展是促进湛江区域经济发展的重要抓手。港口货物吞吐量是港口规划和发展决策的重要前提。文章以湛江港口货物吞吐量为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型对货物吞吐量进行预测,并结合湛江港口的实际情况提出了具有可行性和操作性的建议。研究表明,GM(1,1)模型适用于湛江港口货物吞吐量的预测,模型精度较好。

Based on its superior geography location and resources,Zhanjiang plays an important role in“One Belt One Road”and advancing the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Port development is an important link to promote the regional economic development of Zhanjiang.Port cargo throughput is an important prerequisite for port planning and development decision-making.Taking the cargo throughput of Zhanjiang port as the research object,this paper uses the grey system theory GM(1,1)model to predict the cargo throughput,and puts forward feasible and operational suggestions combined with the actual situation of Zhanjiang port.The research shows that GM(1,1)model is suitable for the prediction of cargo throughput of Zhanjiang port,and the accuracy of the model is good.