能源效率对中国油气进口贸易影响研究——基于与主要能源伙伴国全要素能源效率的面板数据

Research on the Influence of Energy Efficiency on China's Oil and Gas Import Trade:Panel Data based on Total Factor Energy Efficiency with Major Energy Partners

中国油气进口存在依存度高、进口区域集中和运输风险较大等问题,确保中国油气进口安全稳定是实现能源高质量发展的前提和基础,提高全要素能源效率则是关键所在。文章基于Malmquist的DEA方法测算了中国与“一带一路”沿线主要油气能源伙伴国全要素能源效率,并进一步通过面板数据模型研究了能源效率及其他因素对中国油气进口贸易的影响,结果发现:中国全要素能源效率不高,且石油领域劣于天然气领域;提升中国能源效率可一定程度缓解石油进口压力,但会进一步促进天然气进口;提升清洁能源在能源结构中的占比可缓解中国油气进口压力,但当前的影响作用尚小。未来,可从提高中国全要素能源效率、扩大清洁能源占比、多元化油气进口渠道和加大油气能源储备建设等方面改善中国油气进口情况。

China's oil and gas imports have problems such as high dependence,concentration of import regions,and high transpor-tation risks.Ensuring the safety and stability of China's oil and gas imports is the prerequisite and foundation for achieving high-quality energy development and improving all-factor energy efficiency is the key to it.Based on Malmquist's DEA method,the article calculates the total factor energy efficiency of China and the major oil and gas energy partners along the Belt and Road.Then it uses energy efficiency and other factors to explore the impact on China's oil and gas import through a panel data model.The results show that:China's all-factor energy efficiency is not high,and the oil sector is inferior to the natural gas sector;improving China's energy efficiency can relieve oil import pressure to a certain extent,but it will promote natural gas imports;increasing the proportion of clean energy can alleviate China's oil and gas import pressure,but it has a little effect.In the future,China's oil and gas import situation can be improved by improving China's total factor energy efficiency,expanding the proportion of clean energy,diversifying oil and gas import area,and increasing the construction of oil and gas energy reserves.