新形势下中国新型城镇化动力问题研究

Research on the Dynamics of Labor Migration in China under the New Situation

文章基于2007—2018年全国及31个省级区域的短面板数据,针对人口迁徙家庭化趋势下带来的各类需求增长与城镇就业岗位、公共服务与高等教育供给不充分之间的矛盾导致的中国城镇化发展进程存在的非均衡现象进行研究。分析了收入就业等经济因素,公共服务、高等教育等社会因素对农村劳动力转移量及转移率的影响。研究结论认为:开放劳动力市场下提供的收入水平越高、就业机会越多,城镇公共服务和高等教育供给度越强,对于劳动力迁徙的正向推力越显著。但产业结构仍需进一步调整,增强吸纳就业的空间与能力。在优化产业结构、支持民营经济发展来推动就业,提供民生需求导向的公共服务,构建与城镇化布局相适应的教育资源体系等方面提出促进劳动力迁徙的建议。以期在后疫情时代更好地推动“六稳”“六保”工作,推动以人为核心的城镇化建设,促进国内大循环。

Base on the short panel data of national and 31 provinces during 2007—2018,this paper explores the unbalanced phe-nomenon in the urbanization cause by the contradiction between the growth of demand in the process of family-based migration and under supply of jobs,public service,higher education.We examine the influence mechanisms among the economic factors such as income and employment,social factors such as public service,higher education and the amount and rate of rural labor force.The empirical results indicate that market openness promotes more employment opportunities,the higher income,the more supply of public service and higher education will lead to rural labor migration.At the same time,the industrial structure still needs adjustment to enhance the space and ability to absorb employment.Finally,this paper gives suggestions to promote labor migration on optimizing the industrial structure,promoting the development of private economy,providing public services for people's livelihood and building a reasonable education system.To ensure"stability on the six fronts"and"security in the six areas"in the context of the Post-COVID-19 era,promoting the people-centered urbanization,accelerating the domestic circulation.