北京市新型冠状病毒肺炎本地确诊病例密切接触者的感染情况及危险因素分析

Analysis of the infection and the risk factors of close contacts from local confirmed cases with COVID-19 in Beijing

目的通过对北京市新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)本地确诊病例密切接触者中感染新型冠状病毒肺炎的病例或无症状感染者的感染率和危险因素进行分析,为本地新型冠状病毒肺炎密切接触者的精准管控提供科学依据。方法以2020年1月19日-5月31日北京市新型冠状病毒肺炎本地确诊病例的密切接触者为研究对象,共2906人。采用χ2检验比较感染率的组间差异,应用多因素Logistic回归分析密切接触者感染新型冠状病毒肺炎或无症状感染者的危险因素。结果2906名密切接触者中,166名转归为确诊病例或无症状感染者,总感染率为5.71%。单因素分析结果为女性(6.68%)感染率高于男性(4.71%);<10岁(10.40%)和≥60岁(7.37%)年龄组、医院隔离(21.72%)、同住(15.37%)和同餐(7.11%)的密切接触者感染率较高。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,医务人员的感染风险较高(OR=2.26,95%CI:1.04~4.92),同住(OR=24.25,95%CI:10.44~56.32)和同餐(OR=10.54,95%CI:3.88~28.63)的感染风险较高,集中点隔离(OR=0.02,95%CI:0.01~0.03)和居家隔离(OR=0.09,95%CI:0.06~0.15)的感染风险较低。结论新冠肺炎密切接触者总感染率较高,同住和同餐的感染风险较高,应尽早排查密切接触者,并严格实施集中隔离的医学观察措施。

Objective Through the analysis of the infection and risk factors of COVID-19 cases or asymptomatic infections among close contacts of local confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Beijing,so as to provide a scientific basis for the precise control of close contacts from local confirmed cases.Methods From Jan 19th to May 31th,2020,2906 close contacts from local confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Beijing were used as the research objects.Chi-square test was used to compare the differences in infection rates among groups,and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of infection in close contacts.Results Among the 2906 close contacts,166 were converted to confirmed cases or asymptomatic infections,with a total infection rate of 5.71%.Univariate analysis showed that the infection rate of women(6.68%)was higher than that of men(4.71%),under 10 years old(10.40%)and above 60 years old(7.37%),hospital isolation(21.72%),co-living(15.37%)and co-dining(7.11%)have a higher infection rate.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of infection was higher for medical staff(OR=2.26,95%CI:1.04-4.92),higher for co-living(OR=24.25,95%CI:10.44-56.32)and co-dining(OR=10.54,95%CI:3.88-28.63),and lower for centralized isolation(OR=0.02,95%CI:0.01-0.03)and home isolation(OR=0.09,95%CI:0.06-0.15).Conclusions The overall infection rate of COVID-19 is high,co-living and co-dining are higher risk factors.Close contacts should be confirmed as soon as possible,and medical observation measures of centralized isolation should be strictly implemented.