粮食主产区水土资源匹配、承载力及影响因素分析

Analysis on agricultural water and soil resources matching coefficient,carrying capacity and influencing factors in main grain production area

为客观分析粮食主产区农业水土资源的匹配状况,并正确认识其承载力水平及主要影响因素,根据水资源、耕地资源等数据,计算了农业水土资源匹配系数。同时,从农业水土资源、社会、经济和生态4个系统出发,构建了粮食主产区农业水土资源承载力评价指标体系,综合采用组合赋权的TOPSIS模型和障碍度模型,对2011~2018年粮食主产区的农业水土资源承载力变化特征及其影响因素开展了定量研究。结果表明:①粮食主产区2011~2018年的农业水土资源匹配系数为0.6097万~0.8878万m^(3)/hm^(2),匹配程度整体有待提高;并且呈现出“中部最低、北部略低、南部最高”的空间匹配格局。②粮食主产区农业水土资源承载力整体以0.005/10 a的速率呈现微弱降低趋势,空间上呈现“中部最低、南部中等、北部最高”的分布特征。③4个系统对粮食主产区农业水土资源承载力的影响强度相当,系统中的农业水土资源匹配系数、人均耕地面积、人均粮食产量、生态环境用水率和人均水资源量是影响农业水土资源承载力最强的障碍因子。

In order to objectively analyze the matching status of agricultural water and soil resources in the main grain production areas,and correctly understand the carrying capacity level and main influencing factors,we calculated the matching coefficient of agricultural water and soil resources according to the data of water resources and cultivated land resources.Meanwhile,the evaluation index system of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity in the main grain production areas was constructed from the four systems of agricultural water and soil resources,society,economy and ecology.Based on the TOPSIS model and obstacle degree model with combined weighting,the change characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity in main grain production areas from^(2)011 to 2018 were quantitatively studied.The results showed that the matching coefficient of agricultural water and soil resources in the main grain production areas was 6097 m^(3)/hm^(2)to 8878 m^(3)/hm^(2),indicating the matching degree as a whole needs to be improved,and presented a spatial matching pattern of“the central region was the lowest,the northern region was slightly lower,and the southern region was the highest”.The carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources in main grain production areas as a whole showed a slight decreasing trend at a rate of 0.005/10a,and showed a spatial distribution characteristics of“the central region was the lowest,the southern region was medium,and the northern region was the highest”.The four systems have the similar impact intensity on the carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources in the main grain production areas,and the matching coefficient of agricultural water and soil resources,per capita cultivated land area,per capita grain yield,ecological environmental water use rate and per capita water resources in the system are the strongest obstacle factors affecting the carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources.