计及温度与交通影响的电动汽车充电负荷预测

Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting Considering Temperature and Traffic Impact

为了提高电动汽车(Electric Vehicle,EV)充电负荷预测的准确性,首先在温度因素的影响下,建立了EV的电池容量和空调启动概率模型,其次在交通因素的影响下,结合交通指数和行驶速度等因素,建立了EV的单位里程能耗模型,最后结合以上模型建立了基于蒙特卡洛法的EV充电负荷模型。以某市EV为算例进行仿真分析,结果表明在不同温度与交通指数的影响下,EV的充电负荷曲线发生了显著的变化。

In order to improve the accuracy of electric vehicle(EV)charging load forecasting.Firstly,under the influence of temperature factor,the models of EV battery capacity and air conditioning start probability are established.Secondly,under the influence of traffic factor,combined with traffic index,driving speed and other factors,the energy consumption per unit mileage model of EV is established.Finally,combined with the above models,the EV charging load model based on Monte Carlo method is established.Taking an EV in a city as an example,the simulation results show that the charging load curve of EV changes significantly under the influence of different temperature and traffic index.