高速铁路对城市用地的影响研究——基于经济增长的中介视角

Research on the Influence of High Speed Railway on Urban Land Use:Based on the Mediating Perspective of Economic Growth

以中国256个地级市为研究对象,运用匹配倍差法(PSM-DID)分析高速铁路对城市建设用地的影响,同时运用偏差校正的非参数百分位Bootstrap法对经济增长在上述关系中的作用进行检验。研究结果显示,从总体上看,高铁对东部地区具有显著的促进作用,而对中西部地区的影响则不具显著性。从人口规模的视角看,常住人口大于600万的城市受到高速铁路的影响更大且方向为正,小于600万的城市受到的影响则不具显著性。在高速铁路对城市建设用地产生影响的过程中,经济增长发挥了显著的广义中介效应,且占直接效应的6.37%。其中,东部城市的广义中介效应最为明显,占直接效应的8.64%,而其他城市的影响则不具显著性。

This paper takes 256 prefecture-level cities in China as research objects and use the matching DID(difference-in-difference)method to analyze the influence of high-speed railway on urban construction land.At the same time,the deviation correction percentile Bootstrap method is applied to test the role of economic growth in the above relationship.The result shows that,in general,high-speed railway makes a significant a significant contribution to the eastern region,while the impact on the central and western regions is not significant.From the perspective of population size,cities with a resident population greater than 6 million are more affected by high-speed railway in a positive direction,while cities with less than 6 million are not affected in a significant way.In the process of the influence of high-speed railway on urban construction land,economic growth has played a significant generalized mediating effect which accounts for 6.37%of the direct effect.The generalized mediating effect is most pronounced in the eastern cities,accounting for 8.64%of the direct effect,while the effect in other cities is not significant.