杨干象入侵山东的风险分析

Risk Analysis of Cryptorhynchus lapathi(L.)in Shandong Province

杨干象Cryptorhynchus lapathi(L.)是我国林业检疫性有害生物之一,已经对我国的杨柳科树木造成严重危害。杨柳科树木在山东省广泛分布,且杨干象尚未在山东省分布,考虑其在分布区危害的严重性,急需对其开展入侵山东省的风险分析。本研究利用CLIMEX4.0模型预测了杨干象在山东的适生性,并根据有害生物危险性分析方法对其在山东的风险性等级做出综合评价。结果表明:杨干象在山东省的生态气候指数EI值介于26~39之间,山东省全境为杨干象的高度适生区;杨干象在山东省的风险性评估值R=0.885,判定为风险性极大。明确杨干象在山东省的适生性及各风险性等级,对山东省对杨干象的监测预警及防控对策的制定具有重要的指导意义。

Cryptorhynchus lapathi(L.)is one of the national forestry quarantine pests in China,which has caused serious damage to Salicaceae trees.Salicaceae trees are widely distributed in Shandong province,and C.lapathi has not been distributed in Shandong province.Considering the severity of its harm in the distribution area,it is urgent to carry out risk analysis of invasion of C.lapathi in Shandong province.In this study,CLIMEX 4.0 model was used to predict the adaptability of C.lapathi in Shandong province,and the risk level was comprehensively evaluated based on the pest risk analysis methods.The results showed that the eco-climatic index(EI)of C.lapathi in Shandong province is between 26 and 39,and the whole Shandong province is a highly suitable area for C.lapathi.The risk assessment value R of C.lapathi in Shandong province is 0.885 representing a great risk.It is of great significance to make clear the adaptability and risk level of C.lapathi in Shandong province,which has important guiding significance for the development of monitoring,warning and prevention and control measures.