中日韩自由贸易协定框架下中日双边贸易前景预测

The Forecast of China-Japan Bilateral Trade Under China-Japan-Korea FTA Framework

利用2014—2018年HS-6分位贸易数据,计算中日双边出口二元边际,实证研究关税对出口二元边际的影响,以此预测中日韩自由贸易协定(FTA)框架下的中日双边贸易前景。研究结论如下:一是中日双边贸易增长均主要依靠广延边际扩张,但2016年后双边出口二元边际及比重波动下降;二是以关税优惠为代表的中日韩FTA对中日双边出口均有利,将提升中国出口集约边际即贸易规模与扩大日本出口广延边际即贸易产品种类,且对日本出口更为有利;三是FTA对中日制造业双边出口的影响与总体一致,补偿式技术创新机制在中国制造业中较为明显;四是FTA对中国不同要素密集型制造业对日本出口均有集约边际的贸易效应,其中将给技术密集型制造业出口带来巨大潜力,对日本劳动密集型制造业对中国出口有广延边际的贸易效应,对日本资本密集型制造业出口有负向冲击。

Based on the HS-6 trade data from 2014 to 2018,this paper calculates the binary margin of export between China and Japan,empirically studies the impact of tariff on the binary margin of export,so as to predict the prospects of China-Japan bilateral trade under the China-Japan-Korea FTA framework.The conclusions are as follows:firstly,the growth of bilateral trade between China and Japan mainly depends on the extensive marginal expansion,but after 2016,the binary margin and proportion of bilateral export decrease.Secondly,the China-Japan-Korea FTA represented by tariff preferences is beneficial to both bilateral exports of China and Japan,which will enhance China s intensive margin of export,namely the scale of trade,and expand Japan s extensive margin of export,namely the types of trade products,which is more beneficial to Japan s export.Thirdly,FTA will have the same impact on the bilateral exports of the manufacturing industries of China and Japan as a whole,and the compensatory technological innovation mechanism is relatively obvious in China s manufacturing industry.Besides,FTA has intensive marginal trade effect on the export of different factor-intensive manufacturing industries to Japan,which will bring great potential to the export of technology-intensive manufacturing industries,have extensive marginal trade effect on the export of Japan s labor-intensive manufacturing industries to China,and have negative impact on the export of Japan s capital-intensive manufacturing industries.