中国能源消费碳排放整体隐含强度的结构分析

Structural Analysis of the Aggregate Embodied Intensity of China's Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions

基于投入产出框架的结构路径分析(SPA)和结构分解分析(SDA),借助中国2012年和2017年价值型投入产出表和能源消耗量,按最终需求和部门分别计算了隐含碳排放量和整体隐含强度(AEI)并分解到不同的传输层,然后利用SDA方法研究了AEI变化的驱动机制。研究发现:(1)对隐含碳排放量贡献最大的需求类别为固定资本形成总额,贡献最大的部门为建筑业;对整体隐含强度贡献最大的部门为电力热力的生产和供应业。(2)中国2017年的整体隐含强度较2012年的水平相比呈下降趋势,主要的驱动因素为投入结构效应和最终需求效应。(3)能源消费强度效应不利于碳排放强度的下降,揭示了部门生产效率亟待优化的问题,提高能源利用效率是降低碳排放的主要途径。

Based on the structural path analysis(SPA)and structural decomposition analysis(SDA)of the input-output framework,the article uses China's 2012 and 2017 value input-output tables and energy consumption to calculate embodied carbon according to final demand and sector.Emissions and aggregate embodied intensity(AEI)are decomposed into different transmission layers,and then the driving mechanism of AEI changes is studied using the SDA method.The research found that:(1)the demand category that contributes the most to the embodied carbon emissions is the total fixed capital formation,and the sector that contributes the most is the construction industry;the sector that contributes the most to the aggregate embodied intensity is the production and supply of electricity and heat.(2)the aggregate embodied intensity of China in 2017 shows a downward trend compared with the 2012 level,and the main driving factors are the input structure effect and the final demand effect.(3)the effect of energy consumption intensity restrains the decrease of carbon emission intensity,revealing the problem of urgent optimization of departmental production efficiency.Improving energy utilization efficiency is the main way to reduce carbon emission.