基于CA-Markov与MSPA模型的城市绿色空间格局时空预测——以北京海淀区为例

Spatio-temporal Prediction of Urban Green Spatial Pattern Based on CA-Markov and MSPA Model:A Case Study of Haidian District in Beijing

合理的城市绿色空间格局对优化城市生态功能和提高城市生物多样性具有关键作用,而城市发展规划方向直接影响城市绿色空间格局。研究以北京市海淀区北部为例,设置自然发展与城市规划控制2种情景,运用CA-Markov模型预测2种情景下2030年土地覆被类型情况,并利用MSPA模型定量分析2种预测情景下城市绿色空间结构发展的异同。研究结果表明,合理的城市规划对各类绿色空间形态具有明显提升作用,尤其在保持面积大于20hm2的核心区方面效果显著。在新时代生态文明建设背景下,研究可为城市规划者的决策提供辅助参考,进而促进城市的高效可持续发展。

A reasonable urban green spatial pattern plays a key role in optimizing urban ecological functions and improving urban biodiversity,and the direction of urban development plan directly influences the urban green spatial pattern.Taking the northern part of Haidian District in Beijing as an example,this study sets up two scenarios of natural development and urban planning control,while using the CA-Markov model to predict the land cover types in 2030 under the two scenarios,and using the MSPA model to quantitatively analyze the similarities and differences of the development of urban green spatial structure under the two scenarios.The results show that reasonable urban planning can significantly improve various green spatial forms,especially in maintaining core areas more than 20 hm2.In the background of ecological civilization development in the new era,this research is aimed to provide urban planners with a reference for decision-making so as to realize the efficient and sustainable development of the city.