技术预见效果评估:技术预见活动的有效性和作用因素分析

Technology Foreseeing Effect Evaluation:Research Outcomes and National Practice Cases Analysis

在对国内外有关技术预见效果评估方法与实践分析总结的基础上,分析技术预见活动的效用和提高其效用的因素,为未来技术预见效果评估和技术预见活动的组织改进提供参考。主要采用案例分析与对比分析方法,收集和整理国内外有关技术预见效果评估的研究和部分国家技术预见评估报告,重点分析英国、奥地利、日本、韩国等国家的评估结果,结合技术预见的目的,总结提出本文的观点。国内外有关技术预见效果评估的研究与实践有助于解决技术预见效果评估“评估什么?如何评估?”等问题,可为后续评估提供借鉴。有关技术预见效果评估的实践,证明了技术预见活动的有效性。技术预见的效用主要体现在对政策、规划的影响,以及对社会知识储备的长期影响。成功的技术预见活动所提出的关键技术主题实现率在70%左右,其影响程度取决于技术预见活动与政府相关规划、政策制定的紧密性。

Based on the analysis and summary of the evaluation methods and practices of technology foresight effect at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the effectiveness of technology foresight activities and the factors to improve it,so as to provide reference for the evaluation of technology foresight effect and the optimization of technology foresight activities in the future.This article adopts the methods of case analysis and comparative analysis,collects and sorts out the research on technology foresight effect evaluation in the world and some national technology foresight evaluation reports.It mainly analyzes the evaluation results of Britain,Austria,Japan,South Korea and other countries.Combined with the purpose of technology foresight,this paper summarizes and puts forward the views.These research and practices can help solve the problems of"what to evaluate?How to evaluate?"and other issues about technology foresight effect evaluation,and provide reference for follow-up evaluation.The practices of technology foresight effect evaluation prove the effectiveness of technology foresight activities.The utility of technology foresight is mainly reflected in its impact on policy and planning,as well as its long-term impact on social knowledge reserve.The realization rate of key technology themes proposed by successful technology foresight activities is about 70%,and its impactdegree depends on the closeness of technology foresight activities with governmental planning and policymaking.