长三角、珠三角地区人口老龄化时空变迁比较研究

A Comparative Study on Spatiotemporal Changes of Population Aging in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta

使用第五次、第六次全国人口普查数据、2005年和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,通过测算泰尔指数和GIS平台下的空间数据相关性分析(Moran’sI指数),对长三角、珠三角地区2000~2015年老龄化程度的时空变迁进行比较研究。结果发现:整体上,长三角和珠三角地区人口老龄化的时空进程存在明显的差异,长三角地区老龄化水平和发展速度明显高于、快于珠三角地区;对比区域内部,尽管长三角地区和珠三角地区老龄化均不断加重,人口老龄化呈现区域的聚集性,但长三角地区由2000年以上海、南通市为代表的"双峰"空间分布转变为2015年呈现"次中心"及一定的圈层结构,而珠三角地区区域内部动态变化不明显;作为经济发展的两个典型区域,珠三角地区老龄化总体差异呈缩减态势,长三角地区的老龄化总体差异呈波动性发展,且其老龄化内部差异性不断扩大,其老龄化应对策略较珠三角地区要复杂。

This study used the data from the fifth census, the sixth census, and 1% of the national population surveys in 2005 and 2015,and calculated the Theil index and Moran’s I index with the GeoDa as a GIS data analysis software package.The aging progresses of the population in Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta between 2000 and 2015 were compared.The results showed that:(1)There was an obvious difference in the population aging degrees between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions.The growth and development of the aging level of the Yangtze River Delta area are significantly higher and faster than the Pearl River Delta area.(2)Though the aging degrees in both areas are accelerating and regionally clustering,the Yangtze River Delta area shown the spatial distribution of"double peaks",represented by Shanghai and Nantong in 2000,then changed into a"sub-center"and a certain circle structure in 2015. The Pearl River Delta shown less obviously dynamic change among regions.( 3) In general,the difference of aging in the Pearl River Delta had been shrinking,while the overall difference of aging in the Yangtze River Delta region has been fluctuating,and the inter-regional differences had been expanding,which caused the strategies are more complicated than in the Pearl River Delta region.