不同气候变化情景下入侵植物大狼把草在中国的潜在分布

Potential distribution of invasive species Bidens frondosa under different climate change scenarios in China

运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),以大狼把草(Bidens frondosa)为对象,基于全国范围内大狼把草237个分布点和19个气候因子变量,预测了当前及未来(2050s、2070s)3种气候情景RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5(RCP:representative concentration pathways,代表性浓度路径情景)下大狼把草在我国的潜在分布区域。结果表明:(1)影响大狼把草分布的主要环境因子为最暖季度降水量和温度季节性变化;(2)当前气候模式下大狼把草的适生面积为350.12万km^(2),占我国国土的36.32%,除新疆、青海和海南3省以外,其余省市均有覆盖;(3)未来气候模式下,大狼把草适生面积在3种情景中增加10.72~98.15万km2,其中在RCP8.5情景下2070s达到最大值(448.27万km2),并且适生区域整体向内蒙古东北部扩散。综上,在全球气候变化背景下,大狼把草在我国的适生区域增加并向北扩张。

Based on 237 distribution points and 19 climatic factors,the potential distribution of Bidens frondosa was predicted under three climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5(RCP:representative concentration pathways))in current and future(2050 s and 2070 s)in China.The results showed that:(1)The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of B.frondosa were the precipitation of warmest quarter and the seasonal variation of temperature.(2)Under current climate mode,the suitable distribution area was 3501205 km^(2),accounting for36.32%of the total land area in China.Except for Xinjiang,Qinghai,and Hainan provinces,other provinces(cities)are covered.(3)Under the future climate mode,the suitable distribution area increased by 107200-981500 km2 under the three scenarios,and reached the maximum(4482700 km2)in the RCP8.5 scenario in 2070 s,and the suitable distribution area spread to the northeast of Inner Mongolia.In conclusion,under the background of global climate change,the suitable area of B.frondosa in China will increase and expand northward.