港口体系转型的空间格局及影响因素——基于长江三角洲实证分析

The Spatial Pattern and Driving Factors of Port System Transformation:Empirical Research of the Yangtze River Delta

采用"理论演绎-案例实证-机理阐释"的研究逻辑,从空间视角提出理论假设,分析港口体系在运量、航线与后勤3个维度的集散及转型规律,并以长三角集装箱港口体系为例进行假设验证。结果表明,运量和航线总体上表现为空间分散化态势,低端后勤要素亦由中心枢纽港城市向外围边缘港城市扩散,但高端后勤要素在空间上呈现出进一步向中心枢纽港城市集聚的趋势。通过数理模型研究发现,全球化、市场化、信息化等外部因素以及城市工业发展水平促使运量和航线趋于集聚分布,腹地经济实力、传统交通因素以及金融发展水平、服务化水平等推动运量和航线趋于离散分布;同时,腹地经济和交通等传统因素对港口后勤要素区位选择的影响程度有所下降,而全球化、市场化、服务化等外部因素以及信息化、金融发展水平等新兴因素的影响程度明显上升,尤其对高端后勤要素的区位决策影响更显著。

This article uses the research logic of "theoretical inquiry-scientific evidence-mechanism interpretation" to try to put forward the theoretical hypothesis from the perspective of geography, analyzing the spatial distribution characteristic in the three dimensions of the traffic, the route and the backup service. On this basis,taking the Yangtze River Delta container port system as an example, the theoretical hypothesis is verified and analyzed. The research shows that the spatial evolution of the Yangtze River Delta port system basically verifies the previous theoretical assumptions and model, but it also has specific localization characteristics: among them, the distribution of throughput and liner presents spatial dispersion characteristics on the whole, and the river line before 2013 and the coastline after 2013 show spatial agglomeration characteristics, which is closely related to the integration of local liners and the change of external economic environment in the region. The low-end backup elements have typical spatial dispersion characteristics, while the high-end backup elements have more and more obvious spatial agglomeration. Through the analysis of mathematical model, it is found that in the Yangtze River Delta region, external factors such as globalization, marketization, informatization and traditional economic factors such as the level of industrial development promote the spatial concentration of throughput and liner, while hinterland economic strength, transportation factors, financial level and service level promote the throughput and liner of port system to be scattered in space. In addition, from the location choice of new port backup elements, the influence of traditional factors such as hinterland economy and transportation has declined;On the contrary, the influence of external factors such as globalization, marketization and service, as well as new factors such as informatization and financial development level has increased significantly, especially for the location decision-making of high-end backup elements.