国内国际双循环、本地市场效应与经济发展范式转换

Domestic and International Dual Circles, Home Market Effect, and Paradigm Shift of Economic Development

充分发挥国内超大规模市场优势,畅通国内大循环,是加快构建双循环新发展格局的强大内生力量。理论分析表明,当一个地区的国内本地市场效应发挥作用时,会在一国内部形成地区性的产业集群优势,但这并不必然保证能够形成国家层面的市场规模优势;当国内市场形成一个统一整体时,就可以借助国内超大规模市场优势引致技术创新,最终形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的发展模式。基于2012年中国区域间投入产出数据的实证分析结果表明,本地市场效应通过放大出口贸易显著推动了本地产业的发展,但对省际贸易的影响却并不显著。当前,尽管我国已经初步具备了以国内循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的基础,但国内市场的分割尤其是对内改革开放的不足阻碍了这一进程。因此,依托双循环演化逻辑,消除国内大循环的制约因素,加快国内国际双循环的有效衔接,构建熵减经济系统,将是我国经济发展范式转换的重点所在。

Giving full play to the advantages of domestic super large-scale market and unblocking the domestic big cycle is the endogenous force to accelerate the construction of dual cycle development pattern. Theoretical analysis shows that when a regional domestic market effect plays a role, it will form a regional industrial cluster advantage within a country, but which will not guarantee the formation of a market scale advantage at the national level necessarily;When the domestic market forms a unified whole, the advantages of domestic super large-scale market will lead to technological innovation, and finally form a development model with domestic large cycle as the main body and dual cycles promoting each other. Relying on the evolution logic of dual cycles, eliminating the constraints of domestic big cycle, accelerating the effective convergence of dual cycles, and constructing entropy reduction system will be the focus paradigm shift of economic development.