1996—2015年非洲人口扩张区域类型划分与区域演变分析

Temporal-spatial pattern of regional population expansion in Africa in 1990-2015

采用总人口和劳动力等直接指标单独测度,结合出生率、死亡率、少年系数和老年系数等指标进行综合测度,分析1996—2015年非洲51个国家(地区)人口扩张区的数量变化、空间分布及演化特征,并对比了不同测度指标和方法之间的差异。发现:(1)总人口扩张区的比重虽高,但扩张程度有所放缓,地域分布整体呈现"南北弱、中部强"的特征,其在东非地区缩减明显;(2)劳动力扩张区较总人口扩张区扩张程度更为明显,两者在北非和南非部分地区差异较大,其地域分布整体呈现"北退南进"的变化过程;(3)"劳动力增长率大于总人口增长率"地区比重高于"总人口增长率大于劳动力增长率",且差距有不断拉大的趋势,前者以北非地区西北部、西非地区几内亚湾沿岸较为集中,后者主要集中分布在中非、东非与西非部分地区;(4)基于综合指标结果显示,重度扩张型占有较高的比重,中度扩张型增速较快,轻度扩张型占比呈波动下降;(5)综合指标与单一指标结果有一定的趋同性,但区别也比较明显,综合指标在综合性、前瞻性方面有一定优势。

Basing on the spatial population data during 1996-2015, we applied both the single indicators, including total population and labor, and the integrated indicator including not only total population and labor but also natality, mortality, youth and aging, to analyze the changes of population expansion units in number and spatial distribution, and compared the differences in the measurement indicators.The research showed that: 1)The total population expansion areas have a large proportion, however, the degree of expansion is dropping off;The distribution of total population expansion areas in Africa shows that the North and the South are weaker than the middle part;There are the significant reduction in East Africa.2)In comparison with The total population expansion areas, the labor expansion areas are more obvious, which are totally different in North Africa and South Africa;3)The areas, in which labor growth rate higher than total population growth rate, have a large proportion than that is not.The former have a sharp distinctness in North-West Africa and Guinea Bay Coast;The latter are distributed in Central, East and West Africa;4)The integrated indicator was more effective in evaluating the comprehensive status of population development.Severe expansion areas have higher proportion, and Moderate expansion areas expand rapidly.Mild expansion areas shrink volatility during 1996-2015.5)The results based the integrated indicator are similar partly to that of the single indicators.The integrated indicator has some advantages in comprehensiveness and foresight.