中国三大城市群经济发展的区域差异及收敛性研究

Research on the regional differences and convergence mechanism of economic development for three major urban agglomerations in China

基于京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群2004-2017年城市面板数据,本文采用Dagum基尼系数及按子群分解方法度量中国三大城市群经济发展的区域差异及差异来源,并运用空间面板回归模型对三大城市群经济发展的收敛性进行检验.研究结果表明:中国三大城市群经济发展的总体差异呈现出震荡式下降趋势,珠三角城市群群内差异最大,京津冀城市群群内差异最小,群间差异最大的是珠三角城市群和京津冀城市群;群间差异是导致三大城市群经济发展区域差异的主要来源,其次是群内差异;三大城市群的经济发展受空间因素的影响出现空间集聚现象,且均存在绝对β收敛趋势,在加入相关控制变量时,各城市群经济发展同样存在条件β收敛的特性.

Based on the urban panel data from 2004 to 2017 of the three urban agglomerations,that is Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta,this paper measures the regional differences and the sources of differences of economic development for three major urban agglomerations in China using Dagum Gini coefficient and the method of decomposition by subgroup,and tests the convergence of economic development of three major urban agglomerations using a spatial panel regression model.The results indicate that the overall difference of economic development in China's three major urban agglomerations shows an oscillatory downward trend,and the Pearl River Delta has the largest intra-agglomeration difference,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has the smallest intra-agglomeration difference,while the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have the largest inter-agglomeration difference,and inter-agglomeration difference is the main source of regional difference of economic development in three major urban agglomerations,followed by intra-agglomeration difference.Furthermore,the economic development of the three major urban agglomerations appears the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration under the influence of spatial factors,and all of them have the absolute β-convergence trend.When relevant control variables are added,the economic development of each urban agglomeration also has the characteristic of conditional β-convergence.