中国数字经济发展:动态演进、空间分异与内部互动

The Development of China s Digital Economy:Dynamic Evolution,Spatial Differentiation and Internal Interaction

在明晰数字经济发展内涵的基础上,从产业、融合、溢出、基础设施四个层面构建评价指标体系,基于“时间-空间-指标”三维分析视角,采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、空间Markov链和面板VAR模型,对中国30个省份数字经济发展的时空演变规律及内部互动关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)数字经济发展水平虽然有所提升,但是仍处于较低水平,且在不同省份存在显著的差异;(2)数字经济发展具有集聚特征,地区间差异是地区差距的主要来源,极化现象没有得到缓解;(3)高水平省份的辐射带动作用有限,马太效应和虹吸现象更加明显;(4)数字经济内部的影响并不对称,而且存在一定的时滞性,但长期影响可以忽略不计。

On the basis of clarifying the connotation of digital economic development,this paper constructs an evaluation index system from the four aspects of industry,mixture,spill over and infrastructure.Based on the perspective of“time-space-index”,the Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,spatial Markov chain and panel VAR model are adopted to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and internal interaction of digital economic development in 30 provinces of China.The results show that:although the level of digital economic development in China has improved,it is still at a low level,and there are significant differences in different provinces.The digital economic development has the characteristics of agglomeration,the regional difference is the main source of the regional gap,and the polarization phenomenon has not been alleviated.The radiation driving effect of high-level provinces is limited,and Matthew effect and siphon phenomenon are more obvious.Finally,the internal influence of digital economy is not asymmetric,and there is a certain time lag,but the long-term influence can be ignored.