中国和澳大利亚羊肉贸易潜力探析

Analysis on the Trade Potentials of Mutton Between China and Australia

【目的/意义】把握中国与澳大利亚羊肉贸易状况,探究其贸易特征、影响因素和贸易潜力,有助于提升中国羊肉的国际竞争力,推进双边羊肉贸易的发展。【方法/过程】利用UN Comtrade数据库,描述1999-2018年中国与澳大利亚羊肉贸易总体状况,用贸易结合度指数(TCD)、显示性比较优势指数(RCA)和贸易竞争力指数(TC)分析两国羊肉贸易的互补性和竞争性,通过引力模型实证分析羊肉贸易的影响因素与贸易潜力。【结果/结论】结果显示:中国羊肉国际竞争力较低,而澳大利亚羊肉国际竞争力强,两国羊肉贸易联系密切,羊肉双边贸易的潜力大,指出要进一步发展中澳自贸区、提高中国羊肉质量及国际竞争力。

【Objective/Meaning】By grasping the situation of mutton trade between China and Australia,and exploring the trade characteristics,influencing factors,and trade potential,it would be conducive to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese mutton and promote the development of the bilateral trade of mutton.【Methods/Procedures】By using the UN Comtrade database,the overall situation of mutton trade between China and Australia from 1999 to 2018 was described in this paper,and then the complementarity and competitiveness of mutton trade between the two countries were analyzed by using the trade combination index(TCD),revealed comparative advantage index(RCA),and trade competitiveness index(TC).Last,the influencing factors and trade potential of mutton trade were empirically analyzed through the gravity model.【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that the international competitiveness of Chinese mutton was relatively low,while that of Australian mutton was strong.The mutton trade between the two countries was closely linked and the bilateral mutton trade had great potential.Therefore,it was necessary to further develop China-Australia Free Trade Zone and improve the quality and international competitiveness of Chinese mutton.