新冠疫情冲击、期限结构与民间借贷风险——基于温州的微观调查数据

The Impact of the COVID-19,Term Structure and Private Lending Risks:Based on Wenzhou s Micro Survey Data

民间金融风险影响了实体经济特别是民营经济的健康发展。本文基于新冠疫情这一外生事件,分析和检验新冠疫情冲击对民间金融风险的影响。研究发现,新冠疫情增加了民间金融体系的风险,通过绘制变量间的脉冲响应图发现,疫情冲击会使民间借贷风险在较长时间内呈上升趋势。进一步研究发现:第一,新冠疫情对民间金融市场的冲击,在不同期限的借贷利率上具有显著的异质性,对长期借贷市场风险影响更大。第二,分区间研究发现,短期借贷风险仅在疫情发生后较短的一段时间内受到影响,长期借贷风险受到冲击的持续时间较长。

Private financial risks affect the healthy development of the real economy,especially the private economy.Based on the exogenous events of the COVID-19 epidemic,this article analyzes and studies the impact of the new epidemic on private financial risks.Studies have found that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the level of risk in the private financial system.By plotting impulse response diagrams between variables,it is found that the impact of the epidemic will increase the risk of private loans for a long period of time.Further research found that:First,the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the private financial market has significant heterogeneity in lending rates of different maturities,and has a greater impact on long-term lending market risks.Second,inter-regional studies have found that short-term borrowing risks are only affected in a short period of time after the outbreak of the epidemic,while long-term borrowing risks are affected for a longer period of time.