经济周期阶段转换视角下财政乘数测算与财政政策效应检验

Fiscal Multiplier Measurement and Fiscal Policy Effect Testing from the Perspective of Cycle Phase Transformation

本文基于平滑迁移VAR模型,测算处于不同经济周期阶段的财政乘数,并利用脉冲响应函数对政策的作用机理与福利损失进行度量。结果显示:首先,财政乘数在紧缩阶段大于扩张阶段,体现出显著差异性、非对称性与逆周期性,且对投资的带动作用最强。财政政策效应在经济扩张阶段明显减弱,体现当前财政政策操作的逆周期特征;其次,在收缩阶段,财政政策效应具有长期性和持续性,持续有效期限可达到5年,但是对应的福利损失较大,可以达到扩张阶段福利损失的3倍;而扩张期间的财政政策效果可以维持2年左右,但福利损失较小,这表明经济扩张期间政策效果较弱,适宜作为维持经济增长处于合理区间的微调工具。目前我国逐步由紧缩时期迈入扩张时期,积极财政政策尚未到退出时点,因此在政策制定与执行过程中需要充分考量不同阶段政策效果差异,并将紧缩时期扩张政策的长期福利损失纳入分析框架,以实现政策连续性、稳定性与可持续性。

Based on the STVAR model,this paper calculates the fiscal multiplier at different stages of business cycle,and uses impulse response function to measure the mechanism of policy action and welfare loss.The results show that:firstly,the fiscal multiplier is larger in the contraction stage than in the expansion stage,which shows significant difference,asymmetry and counter-cyclical,and has the strongest driving effect on investment.The effect of fiscal policy is obviously weakened in the stage of economic expansion,which reflects the counter-cyclical characteristics of the current fiscal policy operation.Secondly,in the contraction stage,the effect of fiscal policy is long-term and sustainable,and the duration of the continuous effective period can reach 5 years,but the corresponding welfare loss is large,which can reach 3 times of the welfare loss in the expansion stage.However,the effect of fiscal policies during the expansion period can be maintained for about 2 years,but the welfare loss is small,which indicates that the effect of policies during the economic expansion period is weak,and it is suitable to be used as a fine-tuning tool to maintain economic growth in a reasonable range.At present our country gradually by squeeze into expansion period,active fiscal policy has not yet to the exit point,requires full consideration in the process of policy formulation and implementation effect of different stages of policy differences,tight and expansion of the welfare loss into the analysis framework for a long time,in order to realize the policy continuity,stability and sustainability.