中国对西亚地区国家的贸易影响因素及贸易潜力测算——基于面板数据引力模型

An analysis of the influencing factors and trade potential of China’s cooperation with Western Asia based on Panel Data gravity model

在“一带一路”合作共赢倡议的背景下,中国与西亚地区国家之间贸易获得了较快的发展。文章采用拓展的贸易引力模型,使用2004-2018年15年的数据,去探究哪些因素会对中国与西亚地区国家贸易合作产生影响,并测算目前中国与西亚地区国家之间的贸易潜力。研究结果表明,进出口国的GDP、人口数量以及作为WTO成员国这三个因素都对中国与西亚地区国家之间的贸易额发挥着积极作用,距离则起到阻碍作用;目前中国与西亚地区国家贸易状况仍处于拓展型。基于实证结论,文章对如何加强中国与西亚国家贸易发展提出了针对性建议。

One belt,one road initiative China is to analyze the trade status between China and Western Asia in the past 2000-2019 years.Based on the basic trade gravity model,we add FTA,WTO and the virtual variables to analyze the 2004-2018 years’influence on trade cooperation between China and Western Asia,and measure trade potential.The results show that:the GDP and population of the importing and exporting countries can promote the trade between China and West Asia;the distance hinders the trade between China and West Asia;whether it is a WTO member also has an important impact on the trade volume of both sides;China and West Asia are still in the trade expansion period.Therefore,it is suggested that China should attach importance to its own economic growth and population policy when conducting trade with Western Asia,and actively promote the signing of free trade agreements between the two sides.