管理者有限理性对企业投资预期的作用效应--基于A股主板企业面板数据的实证检验

The Effect of Manager's Bounded Rationality on Enterprise Investment Expectations:Empirical Based on Panel Data of A-share Main-Board Market Enterprises

我国企业管理者有限理性行为主要表现为过度自信、短视偏差和从众行为,情绪感染理论、市场竞争机制、企业内部奖惩机制等角度都揭示各种管理者有限理性行为对企业投资预期的作用机制。通过构建面板数据回归模型,利用我国A股主板企业的数据进行实证检验。研究发现:我国企业管理者的有限理性行为对企业投资预期存在显著的作用效应;管理者过度自信和从众行为显著正向作用于企业投资预期,短视偏差对企业投资预期存在显著负向作用效应;管理者过度自信对企业投资预期的作用力度最大,短视偏差次之,而从众行为最弱。

The bounded rational behavior of managers in the process of corporate management in my country is mainly manifested in overconfidence,short-sightedness and conformity behavior.From the perspectives of emotional infection theory,market competition mechanism,and enterprise internal reward and punishment mechanism,it theoretically analyzes the effect mechanism of various managers'bounded rational behavior on enterprise investment expectations.By constructing a panel data regression model,the empirical test was conducted using the data of my country's A-share main board companies.The study found that the bounded rational behavior of Chinese corporate managers has a significant effect on corporate investment expectations,managers'overconfidence and herd behavior significantly positively affect corporate investment expectations,short-sighted biases have a significant negative effect on business investment expectations,managers'overconfidence has the greatest effect on corporate investment expectations,short-sighted deviations are the next,and herd behavior is the weakest.