风暴灾害下海洋油气工业重大事故演化层次研究

Research on evolution hierarchy of major accidents in offshore oil and gas industry in storm disasters

为保证风暴灾害等极端环境下海洋油气作业安全,提出基于扎根理论和决策实验室分析法-解释结构模型(DEMATEL-ISM)的事故演化层次研究方法。首先,通过风暴灾害下海洋油气工业重大事故案例的统计分析,探讨事故发生与外部环境因素和内部特征因素的相关关系;然后,利用程序化扎根理论开展自下而上的客观归纳,对事故致因因素编码并形成概念和各级范畴;最后,结合DEMATEL-ISM自上而下主观演绎的特性,确定事故的演化层次。研究结果表明:较高的风暴强度、较长的服役年限、较低的自身等级和风暴频繁发生的季节及区域等都是导致事故发生的潜在风险;事故演化层次中B4和B3等2个层级交互关系具有涌现性的特征,恶劣气象条件和风险意识缺乏是事故发生的根本原因,支撑结构受损和水密完整性损失是事故发展的关键节点,平台设施受损是事故演化的必由路径,加强上述因素的管控可有效降低极端灾害下的海洋油气作业风险水平。

In order to ensure safety of offshore oil and gas operations in extreme environments,a research method on evolution hierarchy of major accidents based on grounded theory and DEMATEL-ISM is proposed.Firstly,correlation between accidents and external environmental factors and internal factors was discussed through statistical analysis on accident cases.Then,programmed grounded theory was used to carry out objective induction from top to bottom for encoding and categorizing causal factors of accidents.Eventually,accident evolution hierarchy was determined considering subjective deduction characteristics of DEMATEL-ISM.The results show that potential risks for accidents include greater storm intensity,longer service life,lower platform category as well as season and area which see frequent storms.And interaction between B4 and B3 has characteristics of emergence.It also suggests that bad weather and lack of risk awareness are root causes of accidents,damage of supporting structure and loss of seal integrity are key nodes while damage of platform facilities is a necessary route.By intensifying management and control on above factors,risks of offshore oil and gas operations in extreme disasters can be effectively reduced.