战争、精英与国家兴衰的分流——东魏-北齐和西魏-北周的比较分析

War,Elite and the Rise and Fall of States:A Comparative Analysis of Eastern Wei-Northern Qi and Western Wei-Northern Zhou

在"战争制造国家"的理论基础上,立足北朝末年内战与国家建构的历史背景,本文从结构/能动的角度讨论了战争压力下的统治者与精英互动的结果对国家兴衰的决定性影响。通过自然实验设计将国际局势、自然资源、暴君昏君、民族矛盾以及军事地理等变量的影响加以控制,本文提出了一种新的解释机制:在长期的战争压力下,面对碎片化的权力结构,东魏-北齐的统治者试图通过排他性改革来实现政治整合,结果造成了精英之间的分裂和政争。相反,西魏-北周的统治者则在包容性改革的基础上逐步实现政治整合,这种累积性的差异最终导致了双方兴衰的逆转。

Building on the bellicist approach to state building,in the historical context of civil wars and state formation in the late years of the Northern dynasties,this article discusses the crucial impact of the interaction between rulers and elites on the rise and fall of Eastern Wei-Northern Qi and Western Wei-Northern Zhou from a structure-agency perspective.By controlling for factors including international situation,natural resource,emperor’s tyrannical behavior,ethnic cleavage and military geographical variables in a natural experiment,this article proposes a new causal mechanism that facing the constant threat of war,the stability and survival of ancient states depend heavily on the networks among local elites.Faced with similarly fragmented power structures,the rulers of Eastern Wei-Northern Qi adopted exclusive reform that led to divisions and political competitions among elites,whereas the rulers of Western Wei-Northern Zhou adopted inclusive reform that paved the way for the ultimate power integration across the state;the different approaches to reform resulted in the reversal of national fortune and changed the dynamics of the rise and fall of states.