分析师预测乐观偏差与企业创新投资——基于收入压力的视角

Analyst Forecast Optimism and Innovation Investment——From the Perspective of Revenue Pressure

现有文献的潜在假设多认为分析师预测乐观偏差是一个负面事项。与此不同,本文从标的公司经营行为的角度,基于收入压力视角研究了分析师预测乐观偏差可能的积极效应。具体地,本文考察分析师预测乐观偏差对企业创新的影响。研究发现,分析师预测乐观偏差对企业创新具有显著的促进作用。进一步地,分析师预测乐观偏差对企业创新的促进作用主要体现在低机构持股、高融资约束和高CEO持股企业中。同时发现,分析师预测乐观偏差对企业创新的促进作用可能通过提高市场价值、增加管理层风险承担的渠道发挥作用。研究还显示分析师预测乐观对于企业资本投资没有显著影响。本文的研究对于理解分析师预测乐观偏差及资本市场非理性情绪的微观经济后果具有一定启示意义。

While existing literature often considers analyst forecast optimism as negative phenomenon,this paper examines the possible positive effects of analyst forecast optimism on enterprise innovation from the perspective of revenue pressure.The results show that analyst forecast optimism promotes corporate innovation.And this relation is more pronounced for firms with low institutional ownership,high financial constraints and high CEO ownership.In addition,we find that the main channels are increase of market valuation and managers’risk-taking.Further tests show that analyst forecast optimism has no significant effect on the capital investment.This paper has important implications on the real effect of analyst forecast optimism.