基于系统动力学的煤炭企业并购绩效影响因素及其作用机制研究

Influencing factors and the action mechanism of coal enterprise mergers and acquisitions performance based on systematic dynamics

将政府规制、行业竞争、创业导向、组织警觉等作为影响煤炭企业并购主要因素,运用系统动力学方法构建反馈系统,建立了整体流图模型以及各因素间模型原因树。通过状态变量方程、辅助变量方程和速率变量方程,运用Vensim软件模拟分析各变量动态行为,对政府规制、行业竞争、创业导向、组织警觉对煤炭企业长期绩效的长期影响进行仿真模拟。研究发现,在不引入外部变量条件下,我国煤炭企业长期绩效显示出缓慢增长趋势。四个影响变量比较结果中,组织警觉对煤炭企业长期绩效发展趋势变化幅度最大,其次是创业导向、行业竞争和政府规制的作用。

Government regulation, industry competition, entrepreneurial orientation, organizational vigilance are the main influencing factors of coal enterprise mergers and acquisitions. Based on the definition of the variable and structure, the system dynamics trend simulation is used to construct complex feedback system. According to system dynamics research, the framework establishes an overall flow graph model and a model reason tree for each link of the system. Further, the main state variable equations, rate variable equations and auxiliary variable equations in the mode are defined. Then, the Vensim software is used to simulate and analyze the dynamic behavior of each variable, and the overall development trend of each influencing factor for the long-term performance of the enterprise is simulated. It’s found that the long-term performance level of coal enterprises showed a slow growth trend in the future without considering the introduction of any variables into the system model. According to the comparison of different influence factors, the organizational vigilance has the greatest influence on the development trend of long-term performance system, followed by the entrepreneurial orientation, industry competition and government regulation.