青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题

Several research frontiers of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau

在全球变化的背景下,青藏高原冰冻圈和大气圈正在发生快速变化,对“亚洲水塔”和“第三极”的生态环境带来深刻影响。研究并梳理了近年来青藏高原气候变化的若干前沿科学问题的研究进展,如高原极端气候事件变化及其与大气环流的关系;高原变暖放大效应及海拔依赖型变暖的物理机制;再分析资料在高原气候变化应用的适用性;气候模式在高原资料稀缺地区的模拟偏差特征及不确定性;以及不同升温阈值下高原气候变化的预估及其风险等。同时展望了高原气候变化研究的前沿问题和科学难点。认清高原气候变化研究的前沿科学问题,可为“一带一路”倡议顺利实施提供科学依据。

Under the background of global change,the cryosphere and atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are changing rapidly,which seriously affects the ecological environment of“Asian Water Tower”and“the Third Pole”.This paper reviews some issues in the research on climate change over the TP in recent years,in⁃cluding the change of extreme climate events over the TP and its relationship with the atmospheric circulation,the amplified warming and the physical mechanism of elevation dependent warming,applicability of modern re⁃analysis data,the bias and inaccuracy of climate models in the areas with scarce data over the TP,and the projec⁃tion and risk study of climate change over the TP under the different warming threshold.Finally,some impor⁃tant issues and associated scientific challenges in the study of climate change over the TP are identified and their prospects are discussed.Addressing these will support the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.