新冠疫情背景下农产品物流需求预测——以兴化市为例

Forecasting of Logistics Demand for Agricultural Products under the Background of COVID-19——A Case Study of Xinghua City

为探究新冠疫情对农产品物流需求造成的影响,确保农产品市场供需平衡,实现物流资源的合理配置,选取2004~2018年兴化市相关数据,运用灰色预测模型GM1,1对2019~2025年兴化市的农产品物流需求量进行预测,预测结果表明兴化市农产品物流需求量整体呈上升趋势。结合农产品物流的发展现状,分析新冠疫情对农产品物流需求造成的冲击,并针对此次突发事件农产品物流暴露的问题提出改进建议。

In order to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the demand for agricultural products logistics,ensure the balance between supply and demand of agricultural products market,and realize the reasonable allocation of logistics resources,the relevant data of Xinghua city from 2004 to 2018 were selected,and the grey prediction model GM1,1 was used to forecast the demand for agricultural products logistics in Xinghua city from 2019 to 2025.The prediction results showed that the demand for agricultural products logistics in Xinghua city was on the rise.Combined with the development status of agricultural products logistics,this paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the demand for agricultural products logistics,and puts forward improvement suggestions for the problems exposed by the emergency in agricultural products logistics.