建筑部门碳达峰碳中和排放控制目标研究

Research on Emission Goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral in Building Sector

我国建筑运行阶段碳排放占全社会总碳排放的比例为22%,建筑部门的节能减碳工作对我国"30·60"双碳战略目标的实现至关重要。本文分析了影响建筑运行阶段碳排放的主要因素并对其中长期发展趋势进行预测,构建了基于LEAP模型的建筑运行碳排放长期预测模型,量化分析不同建筑部门减碳工作对双碳目标的贡献率。结果表明:基准情景下,我国建筑运行与相关基础设施碳排放将于2040年左右达峰,峰值为31.1亿t CO_(2);通过建筑节能强规提升、建筑光伏一体化、清洁取暖等工作有效开展,我国建筑部门碳达峰时间可提前至2030年,峰值为27亿~28亿t CO_(2),到2060年,建筑领域将剩余6亿~8亿t CO_(2)需要完成碳中和。

The building sector emits 22% of total carbon dioxide in China. Hence,conserving energy and decarbonizing this sector is essential in achieving the 30·60 Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality Target.The thesis analyzes factors behind the carbon emission in the building sector and forecasts its mid-to-long term trend in a model based on Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System( LEAP) where contributions of decarbonizing measures to the Target are quantified. Results show that in a Business As Usual scenario the building sector and building of related infrastructure will reach carbon emission peak at 3. 111 billion tons of CO_(2) around2040. However,this industry will reach its carbon emission peak in 2030,emitting 2. 7 to 2. 8 billion tons,if some measures are taken effectively,including enforcing stricter building codes in energy effiency,using buildingintegrated photovoltaic materials and clean heating. By 2060 building sector will only emit 600 to 800 million tons of CO_(2).