非线性视角下的上海旅游地复杂系统演化过程及动力学特征

Evolution and dynamic characteristics of tourism destination complex system from the perspective of nonlinearity:A case study of Shanghai

随着旅游地发展复杂性的增加,非线性研究方法成为旅游地演化研究的有效选择。以上海为案例地,运用水平可视图算法,将旅游需求作为旅游地复杂系统动态行为表征,探讨旅游地复杂系统演化过程及动力学特征。研究发现:旅游地复杂系统演化具有小世界和近似无标度网络特性,混沌动态行为特征,表现为混沌确定非线性动力系统;上海旅游地复杂系统演化处于"无序中的有序"混沌或混沌边缘,原有秩序已瓦解,系统新的属性和结构逐渐涌现,有待新的高级有序态生成;旅游地复杂系统遵循"有序—混沌(边缘)—涌现—新有序",从低级有序向高级有序演化跃升的过程;外部环境和主体系统主导下的重要事件是旅游地复杂系统由低级有序向高级有序演化的"关键要素",政府学习创新能力的提升对系统阶段性演进起到"推进器"作用,旅游企业开始显现主导地位,成为未来推动上海旅游地复杂系统演替发展的主导力量。上海国际入境旅游客源国(日、韩、新、德、英、法、加、澳)和国内旅游外地游客市场处于不稳定的混沌区域,是影响上海旅游地复杂系统混沌行为的重要因素,应进行混沌控制,加强管理和引导,促进上海旅游地复杂系统新演化阶段有序态的生成。

With the increasing complexity of tourism destination development, nonlinear research method has become an effective way for tourism destination evolution research. This paper, with Shanghai as a case study, takes the tourism demand as the dynamic behavior representation of the complex system of the tourism destination by using the method of horizontal visibility graph. It explores the evolution process and dynamic characteristics of the complex system of tourism destination. Result shows that the evolution of tourism destination complex system is featured by a small world and approximate scale-free network, which is characterized by chaotic dynamic behavior and chaotic deterministic nonlinear dynamic system. The evolution of the complex system of Shanghai tourism destination is in the chaos of "order in disorder" or the edge of chaos. The original order of the system has collapsed, and new attributes and structures have emerged gradually, and then they will form a new advanced order. The complex system of tourism destination follows the process of "order-chaos(edge)-emergence-new order", from low order to high order. The major events dominated by the external environment and the main system are the "key elements" of the evolution of complex tourism destination system from low-level order to high-level order. The improvement of the government’s learning and innovation ability acts as a "propeller" in the system’s phased evolution. Tourism enterprises begin to play a critical role and become the leading force to promote the development of complex system of Shanghai’s tourism destination in the future.International inbound tourism source countries of Shanghai(Japan, South Korea, Singapore,Germany, Britain, France, Canada, and Australia) and domestic foreign tourism market are in an unstable chaotic region, which is an important factor affecting the chaotic behavior of the complex system of Shanghai’s tourism destination. We should control the chaos, strengthen the management and guidance, and promote the formation of orderly state in the new evolution stage of the complex system of Shanghai’s tourism destination.