马克思的实证何以如此特别?——计量分析与《资本论》研究方法的比较

Why Is Marx’s Empirical Study So Special?:A Comparison between Quantitative Analysis and Capital Method

基于选题、假说、变量、建模、样本以及检验等六个方面,文章对西方经济学的计量分析与《资本论》的研究方法进行了比较。基本结论是:(1)形式逻辑的三大定律排斥矛盾思维,故计量分析难以提出并完成揭示经济变量内在本质的任务和要求;而辩证逻辑的矛盾分析在《资本论》中是一以贯之的,故马克思拒绝在现象层面兜圈子,必然以揭示资本主义生产方式的内在本质为己任。(2)西方经济学基于唯心史观的方法论,必然将驱动经济发展的生理欲望最终归结为主观的"心理因素";而《资本论》基于唯物史观的方法论,必然将驱动经济发展的社会矛盾最终归结为客观的"社会存在"。(3)就实证过程的起点、对象、路径、任务和目的而言,《资本论》之所以迥异于西方经济学的计量分析,根本原因就在于二者的理论依据和思维方式不同。文章还讨论了有关数学分析的三个困惑。

Based on six aspects including topic selection,hypothesis,variables,modeling,samples and testing,the article compares the econometric analysis of Western Economics with the research methods of Capital.The basic conclusions are:(1)The three laws of formal logic exclude contradictory thinking,so it is difficult for econometric analysis to propose and complete the tasks and requirements of revealing the intrinsic nature of economic variables;the contradiction analysis of dialectical logic is consistent in Capital,so Marx refused to circle around on the phenomenon level,and surely took it as his duty to reveal the inner nature of the capitalist mode of production.(2)Western economics is based on the methodology of historical idealism,which will inevitably attributes the physiological desires that drive economic development to subjective"psychological factors";the methodology of Capital based on historical materialism will inevitably drive the economic development of the society contradictions ultimately to objective"social existence".(3)In terms of the starting point,object,path,task and purpose of the empirical process,the fundamental reason why Capital is so different from the econometric analysis of Western economics lies in the difference in theoretical basis and way of thinking.The article also discusses three puzzles about mathematical analysis.