国际战争与国内族群政治——伊拉克库尔德人运动的历时比较研究

The Impact of International War on Iraq's Domestic Kurdish Autonomous Movement

以往对族群冲突的国际维度研究忽视了国际战争对国内族群政治产生的影响,因而对库尔德人运动这类深受国际政治和国际战争影响的案例难以给出令人信服的解释。鉴于此,本文提出了一个新的理论分析框架以弥补这一不足。该理论分析框架认为:国际战争将导致母国对内控制力下降、国内少数族群政治诉求更为激进、敌国干预族群政治的动机上升,进而增大族群冲突爆发和升级的可能;这一因果机制受到了敌国的干预能力、少数族群的战略价值、少数族群的动员能力以及少数族群的动员意愿等四类因素的调控。通过对比分析伊拉克在1946-2000年间经历的六次国际战争对其境内库尔德人运动的影响,本文验证了该理论分析框架的解释力。

The previous studies on the international dimension of ethnic conflict have ignored the influence of international wars on domestic ethnic politics,so it is difficult to give convincing explanations for cases such as the Kurdish autonomy movements,which are deeply influenced by international politics and international wars.In view of this,this paper puts forward a new theoretical analysis framework to make up for this deficiency.According to the theoretical analysis framework,international war will lead to the decline of a country's control of its domestic minorities,more radical political demands of its domestic minorities,and stronger motivation of its enemy country to intervene in its domestic ethnic politics,which will surely add up to increasing the possibility of the outbreak and escalation of ethnic conflicts within the mutually hostile countries,especially the countries at war.Moreover,this causal mechanism is regulated by four classes of factors:the intervention ability of the enemy state,the strategic value of the minority groups,the ability of the minority groups to revolt and separate,and the will of the minority groups to revolt and separate.This paper verifies the explanatory power of the theoretical framework by comparative analysis of the impact of the six international wars Iraq fought from 1946 to 2000 on the Kurdish autonomy movements within Iraq.