中国“胡焕庸线”东西两侧能源消耗空间格局的系统动力学模拟

System dynamics model-based simulation of energy consumption pattern on the two sides of the Huhuanyong Line in China

"胡焕庸线"是中国人口、经济和社会发展格局特征的真实写照,科学地刻画了中国能源生产与消费的基本特征。定量模拟该线东西两侧能源消耗的空间格局可以为国家实现能源与区域协调发展提供参考。论文根据中国能源统计年鉴(2005—2014年),结合系统动力学模型(System Dynamic, SD)与灰色模型构建了胡焕庸线能源消耗空间格局预测模型(HLECSM-SD);再以省域为基本研究单元,构建50 km×50 km空间格网,模拟2020年并预测2021—2025年"胡焕庸线"东西两侧能源消耗的空间格局,设置3种情景方案分析中国能源消耗情况。结果表明:(1) HLECSM-SD模型具有较好的拟合效果。(2)全国能源消耗总量呈现"东多西少"的空间格局。(3)该线两侧的能源消耗量增长率曲线变化趋势一致,且东侧的增长率低于西侧。(4)在胡焕庸线东侧,煤炭消耗量具有"北部多、南部少"的空间特征,这与中国煤炭资源蕴涵量的空间格局一致;石油、天然气和电力消耗量具有"东部多、中部少"的空间特征,这是由各省区资源禀赋、经济水平、人口规模及产业结构等因素共同决定的。(5)在情景设置中,不同影响因子对能源消耗量影响程度不同。

The Huhuanyong Line is a real portrayal of the spatial pattern of population, economic, and social development in China. It perfectly describes key characteristics of energy production and consumption.Quantitatively simulating the spatial pattern of energy consumption on the two sides of the line can provide a reference to achieve regional coordinated development. This study employed data from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook(2005-2014). We first constructed the System Dynamics Model Based on the Huhuanyong Line Energy Consumption Simulation Model(HLECSM-SD) using the GM(1,1) model and System Dynamics(SD) model. Then, we simulated the pattern of various energy consumptions on the two sides of the line from2020 to 2025. Finally, this study analyzed energy consumption of China under three scenarios. The results indicate that: 1) The HLECSM-SD model fits the data well. 2) Energy consumption presents the spatial pattern of more in the east and less in the west in China. 3) The change trend of energy consumption growth rate is consistent across the two regions. The east side has a lower growth rate than the west side. 4) On the east side of the line, coal consumption has the characteristics of more in the north and less in the south. This is consistent with the spatial distribution of China’s coal resources. The consumptions of petroleum, natural gas, and electricity all have the characteristics of more in the east and less in the central region. This is determined by many factors, such as resource endowment, economic development, population scale, and industrial structure of each province. 5) The influencing factors have different degrees of impact on energy consumption under different scenarios. Our findings can provide some reference for the macro decision making in the energy field.