区际产业转移与区域经济差距

Inter-regional Industrial Transfer and Regional Economic Gap

使用1992—2018年27个两位数工业细分行业数据对我国工业区际转移进行测度分析,采用泰尔指数对我国区域经济差距进行测度分析,并构建面板数据计量模型对工业区际转移是否缩小了区域经济差距进行验证。研究发现:(1)2004年以来,我国工业总体处于两阶段的分散转移中,中西部地区是第一阶段分散转移的主要承接地,是劳动和资源密集行业的主要集聚地;南部沿海、东部沿海地区是第二阶段分散转移的主要转入地,是技术和劳动技术中度密集行业的主要集聚地。工业转移中,北方地区受惠较少,南北地区工业差距扩大,工业重心日益向南方地区倾斜。(2)2003年以来,东中西地区间经济差距逐渐缩小,但近年来,南北地区间经济差距大幅度扩大,东部地区内部的南北地区间经济差距是近年来我国总体经济差距扩大的主要原因。(3)工业分散转移缩小了东部与中、西部地区间经济差距,同时,由于承接工业转移的区域博弈中,北方地区受惠较少,也造成了南北地区间经济差距逐步扩大的现实。(4)除了工业,服务业发展也是影响区域经济差距的主要因素。服务业发展在缩小东西部、南北地区间经济差距中的作用大于工业转移的作用。

Based on the data of 27 double-digit industrial segments from 1992 to 2018, this paper measures and analyzes China’s industrial inter-regional transfer, and uses Theil index to measure and analyze China’s regional economic gap. Also a panel data econometric model is built to verify whether the industrial inter-regional transfer has narrowed the regional economic gap. There are following findings:(1) Since 2004, China’s industry as a whole has been in a two-stage decentralized transfer. The central and western regions are the main undertaking regions in the first stage and the main gathering regions of labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries. And the southern and eastern coastal areas are the main undertaking regions in the second stage of decentralization and transfer, and the main agglomeration areas of moderately intensive industries in technology and labor technology. In the industrial transfer, the northern region has benefited less, the industrial gap between the northern and southern regions has widened, and the industrial center has gradually tilted toward the southern region.(2) Since 2003, the economic gap between the eastern, central and western regions has gradually narrowed. However, in recent years, the economic gap between the northern and southern regions has expanded significantly. The economic gap between the northern and southern parts in the eastern region mainly leads to the expansion of China’s overall economic gap.(3) Although the decentralized industrial transfer has narrowed the economic gap among the eastern, central and western regions, in the regional game of undertaking industrial transfer, the northern region has benefited less which results in the fact that the economic gap between the north and the south has gradually widened. At the same time, it has also gradually enlarged the economic gap between the northern and southern regions.(4) In addition to industry, the development of service industry is also a main factor affecting the regional economic gap. The role of the service industry development in narrowing the economic gap between the eastern and western regions, and between the northern and southern regions is greater than that of industrial transfer.