公共转移支付与农户消费

Public Transfer Payment and Rural Consumption

从理论层面归纳公共转移支付影响农户消费的作用机制,利用2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据,构建双固定效应的面板模型进行估计,探讨公共转移支付对农户消费的影响,借助中介调节效应分析法检验其中的作用机制。结果表明:公共转移支付的存在和数额的增加均有助于刺激农户提高消费支出,且其对低消费家庭的影响更为明显,这有助于缓解农村消费不平等状况;公共转移支付会通过提高家庭人均收入、增加家庭面临的有利的收入不确定性、降低家庭面临的不利的收入不确定性及改善农村内部收入分配状况等路径刺激农户消费,其覆盖率和发放额同样重要。因此,扩大公共转移支付的覆盖率,提高其瞄准度、发放额及稳定性,有助于进一步释放农村市场消费潜力。

In this paper, the mechanism of public transfer payments on household consumption is summarized from the theoretical level. Based on the data of Chinese household tracking survey from 2010 to 2018, a double-fixed effect panel model is constructed to estimate the effect of public transfer payments on household consumption, and the mediating effect analysis method is used to test the mechanism. The are following findings: The existence and the amount of the public transfer payment help to stimulate farmers to increase their consumption expenditure, and the effect on low-consumption families is more obvious, which can help alleviate the rural consumption inequality situation. Then, the public transfer payment will stimulate the rural consumption by increasing household per capita income, increasing the favorable income uncertainty, reducing the adverse income uncertainty and improving the internal income distribution in rural areas. And the coverage rate and the amount are equally important. Therefore, it will be helpful for the further release of the consumption potential of rural market that expanding the coverage of public transfer payments and improving their targeting, disbursement and stability.