服务进口对进口国或地区就业的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Service Imports on Employment in Importing Countries or Regions

从进口增长来源视角考察服务进口对进口国或地区就业的影响并总结其对中国的启示,既有助于我国调整贸易结构和推动服务业有序开放,同时也为挖掘和持续发挥服务进口的积极作用提供明确理论借鉴。基于多国或地区面板数据,证实了服务进口扩张可以提升进口国或地区就业规模。区分进口增长来源后发现:种类边际对就业影响不显著,数量边际显著促进就业,质量边际显著抑制就业。进一步的,种类边际正向促进新兴经济体的高技能劳动力就业,数量边际对低技能劳动力就业起促进作用,质量边际对各类型劳动力就业均起抑制作用。种类边际有助于增加女性就业,缓解劳动力市场性别歧视。中介效应检验证实服务进口可以通过生产率影响进口国或地区就业。

Studying the impact of service import on the employment of importing countries from the perspective of the source of import growth and summarizing the enlightenment to China will not only help China to adjust the its trade structure and promote the orderly opening of the service industry, but also provide clear theoretical reference for exploring and continuously giving full play to the positive role of service import. Based on transnational panel data, this paper proves theoretically and empirically that the expansion of service imports can increase the employment scale of importing countries. However, after distinguishing the sources of import growth, it is found that the species margin has no significant effect on employment, the quantity margin significantly promotes employment, and the quality margin significantly inhibits employment. Furthermore, the species margin is positively promoting the employment of high-skilled labor in the emerging economies, and the quantity margin promotes the employment of low-skilled labor force and the quality margin inhibits all types of skilled labor. And the species margin helps to increase female employment and relatively alleviate gender discrimination in the labor market. The intermediary effect confirms that service imports can affect employment of import countries by affecting the productivity of import countries.