农业现代化、劳动力转移与城乡二元经济结构

Agricultural Modernization,Labor Transfer and Dual Economic Structure

农业现代化发展带来的劳动力转移在中国城乡二元经济结构优化过程中发挥重要作用。文章基于2007—2018年中国省级面板数据,分析论证农业现代化、劳动力转移对二元经济结构的影响,并检验劳动力转移在农业现代化对城乡二元结构影响的中介效应。结果表明:农业现代化与劳动力转移均能显著促进二元经济结构优化,其中农业现代化既可以直接作用于二元经济结构,也可以通过劳动力转移间接作用于二元经济结构。进一步异质性分析发现,粮食主产区的农业现代化直接作用于二元经济结构,而非粮食主产区的劳动力转移对农业现代化存在部分中介效应。加快农业现代化步伐,进一步挖掘劳动力转移潜力,是二元经济发展阶段有效缓解城乡经济发展不平衡问题的关键。

The labor transfer brought about by the development of agricultural modernization plays an important role in the optimization of China's urban-rural dual economic structure.Based on China's provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018,this paper analyzes and demonstrates the impact of agricultural modernization and labor transfer on the dual economic structure,and examines the mediating effect of labor transfer on agricultural modernization.The results show that both agricultural modernization and labor transfer can significantly promote the optimization of the dual economic structure.Among them,agricultural modernization can directly affect the dual economic structure or indirectly affect the dual economic structure through labor transfer.Further analysis of heterogeneity find that agricultural modernization in major grain-producing areas directly affects the dual economic structure,while labor transfer in non-major-grain-producing areas has a partial mediating effect on agricultural modernization.Speeding up the pace of agricultural modernization and further tapping the potential for labor transfer are the keys to effectively alleviating the imbalance of urban and rural economic development in the dual economic development stage.