金融发展、产业结构变动与实体经济增长--基于VAR模型的实证分析

Financial development,industrial structure changes and real economic growth--Empirical analysis based on VAR model

基于中国31省市自治区1992-2019年宏观经济数据,采用VAR模型以及脉冲响应函数对金融发展、产业结构变动与实体经济增长三者的关系进行分析.研究显示:3个变量的序列均为一阶单整,构建的VAR模型是平稳的,并且相互之间存在一定的格兰杰因果关系.通过脉冲响应函数分析得出,3者本身均存在正反馈机制,并且产业结构升级能够促进实体经济增长,但会抑制金融发展.而金融发展则会抑制实体经济增长,但能够促进产业结构升级.

Based on 1992-2019 macroeconomic data,the VAR model and impulse response function are used to analyze the relationship between real economic growth,financial development and industrial structure changes.Research shows that the sequences of the three variables are all first-order single integers,and the constructed VAR model is stable,and there is a certain Granger causality between the two.Through the analysis of the impulse response function,it is concluded that the three have their own positive feedback mechanisms and,the upgrading of industrial structure can promote the growth of the real economy,but it will inhibit financial development;and,the financial development will inhibit the growth of the real economy,but it can promote the industrial structure upgrade.