人工智能的经济影响与公共政策响应

Economic Impact and Public Policy Response of Artificial Intelligence

人工智能已经成为新旧动能转换的重要动力之源。本文通过分析已有研究探讨了人工智能对经济增长、就业和收入分配的影响,研究发现:第一,人工智能能够通过提高组织创新能力、减少生产成本、增加研发投入等渠道提升企业生产率,从而促进经济增长。第二,人工智能会对劳动力就业和收入分配产生重要影响。首先,人工智能的“替代效应”和“创造效应”都会影响就业,但两种效应的净影响,存在积极影响、消极影响和影响中性三种观点。其次,人工智能对就业结构的影响在发达国家呈现中间抑制、两端促进的“两极化现象”,而在中国则表现出高端促进的“单极极化”特征。第三,人工智能通过改变不同技能劳动力的收入水平、不同行业要素的投资回报率和企业的市场份额,从而对收入分配产生影响。最后,基于人口老龄化程度逐渐加深的现状,从“智能红利”补位人口红利的下降,应对人工智能发展对劳动力就业和收入差距带来的挑战三个方面提出了发展人工智能的政策响应,为促进人工智能发挥积极作用提供理论基础和实践依据。

Artificial intelligence has become an important source of power for the conversion of old and new kinetic energy.This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence on economic growth,employment and income distribution through the analysis of the existing studies,and finds that,first,artificial intelligence can promote enterprise productivity and economic growth by improving organizational innovation ability,reducing production costs and increasing the investment in R&D.Second,artificial intelligence has an important impact on labor employment and income distribution.The"substitution effect"and"creation effect"of artificial intelligence will affect employment,but the net impact of the two effects is not clear.There are three views of positive impact,negative impact and impact neutral.The influence of AI on employment structure shows the"polarization phenomenon"of intermediate suppression and the two-end promotion in developed countries,while it shows a"unipolarization"characteristic of high-end promotion in China.Third,artificial intelligence has an impact on income distribution by changing the income level of labor with different skills,the rate of return on investment of different industry elements and the market share of enterprises.Finally,based on the current situation of the gradual deepening of population aging,this paper puts forward the policy response to the development of artificial intelligence from three aspects:the decline of"intelligent dividend"to fill the demographic dividend,the challenge to labor employment brought by the development of artificial intelligence and the challenge to income gap,so as to provide theoretical and practical basis for promoting the positive role of artificial intelligence.