中国省际物流业碳排放绩效测度及驱动因素研究

Carbon Emission Performance Measurement and It’s Driving Factors of China’s Provincial Logistics Industry

运用DEA-BCC模型和DEA-Malmquist指数模型对2008-2017年中国30个省份的静态和动态物流业碳排放绩效进行测算,并从经济发展水平、基础设施建设、能源结构、科技水平、市场开放程度和对外开放程度六个维度出发,运用面板Tobit模型对其驱动因素进行探索,结果发现:(1)从静态角度看,中国物流业碳排放绩效整体处于中等水平,除河北、青海、宁夏外,其余省份尚有很大改善空间,同时,东部和东北部绩效远高于中西部,区域差异显著;(2)从动态角度看,中国物流业碳排放绩效总体保持上升态势,除安徽、甘肃、青海外,其余省份都得到了不同程度的改善,但中西部省份的改善幅度普遍低于东部和东北部省份;(3)能源结构对物流业碳排放绩效的影响显著为负,其余因素对物流业碳排放绩效的影响显著为正。

This paper uses the DEA-BCC model and the DEA-Malmquist index model to measure the static and dynamic carbon emission performance of the logistics industry of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017.Moreover,we use the panel Tobit model to explore the driving factors from the six dimensions of economic development level,infrastructure construction,energy structure,scientific and technological level,market opening degree and degree of opening up.The results show that:(1)From static perspective,the overall carbon emission performance of China’s logistics industry is at a medium level.Except Hebei,Qinghai and Ningxia,other provinces still have much room for improvement.Meanwhile,the performance of the eastern and northeastern regions is much higher than that of the central and western regions with significant regional differences;(2)From dynamic perspective,the overall carbon emission performance of China’s logistics industry maintains an upward trend.Except Anhui,Gansu and Qinghai,other provinces improve to varying degrees,but the improvement in the central and western provinces is generally lower than that of the eastern and northeastern provinces;(3)The impact of energy structure on carbon emission performance of logistics industry is significantly negative,and the impact of other factors on performance is significantly positive.