P2P平台分散度、用户风险感知与平台成交量

Dispersion,Consumer Risk Perception and Transaction Volume of P2P Platform

2018年6月以来,P2P市场问题平台与跑路事件频现,严重危及金融体系健康稳定发展。对于满足小额分散这一监管要求的平台而言,高投资分散度能否博得更多投资人青睐、形成更稳定的成交量并由此缓解挤兑风险,是当前亟待检验的课题。而考察分散度能否及如何稳定平台成交量也是解读不同平台抗挤兑能力为何截然不同的关键。研究发现:(1)总体上看,分散度对成交量具有正向影响,即投资者确实更加青睐小额分散类投资平台;(2)上述正向影响只对投资领域较为多元化的P2P平台成立,而对深耕专一业务领域的P2P平台而言,分散度过高意味着资金不能充分匹配到行业优质核心客户,进而削弱出借意愿;(3)平台越是满足小额分散特征,其合规性越强,越有助于降低投资人对平台的风险感知,从而间接提升平台成交量。文章从投资分散度这一业务特征出发,拓展了P2P成交决策的影响因素研究,为反思业务特征与挤兑风险之间的联系提供了新视角。

Since June 2018,problematic platforms and runaways in the P2P market have emerged frequently,seriously endangering the healthy and stable development of the financial system.For platforms that meet the regulatory requirements of micro-diversification,whether high investment diversification can win the favor of more investors,form a more stable volume and thus alleviate the risk of a run,is a subject that needs to be tested.The key to examining whether and how dispersion can stabilize platform volume is also the key to deciphering why different platforms have very different abilities to resist runs.The study found that(1)on the whole,dispersion has a positive impact on turnover,i.e.investors do prefer small and diversified investment platforms;(2)the above positive impact only holds for P2P platforms with more diversified investment areas,while for P2P platforms that are deeply involved in specialized business areas,too much dispersion means that funds cannot be fully matched to high-quality core customers in the industry,which in turn weakens the willingness to lend;(3)The more a platform satisfies the micro-diversification feature,the stronger its compliance,and the more it helps reduce investors'risk perceptions of the platform,thus indirectly boosting platform turnover.The article expands the study of the factors influencing P2P turnover decisions from the business characteristic of investment diversification,and provides a new perspective to reflect on the link between business characteristics and run-off risk.