基于粤港澳大湾区跨界客流的城市引力模型实证研究

Empirical Study on Urban Gravity Model Based on Intercity Passenger Flow in Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area

引力模型是研究城市经济联系的重要工具。基于2003—2017年粤港澳大湾区跨界交通调查数据,从时间序列和城市视角两个维度,分析跨界客流和城市引力的相关性。结果表明,粤港澳大湾区跨界客流量与城市引力呈现显著的线性关系,且城市引力对跨界客流量的贡献符合边际效用递减规律,将引力模型引入跨界客流预测具备可行性。

Gravity model is an important tool to study the economic relationship between cities.Based on the cross-border pas-senger survey data of Guangdong and Hong Kong from 2003 to 2017,this paper analyzes the correlation between cross-border passenger flow and urban gravity from the perspective of time series and city.The results show that there is a significant linear relationship between cross-border passenger flow and urban gravity in Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and the contribution of urban gravity to cross-border passenger flow conforms to the law of diminishing marginal utility.It is feasible to introduce gravity model into regional passenger flow forecasting.