信息化、就业增长与人口流动--基于“胡焕庸线”的分析

Informationization,Employment Growth and Population Mobility--Based on the Analysis of the"Hu Line"

本文构建了信息化影响人口流动的理论框架及其作用机制,并基于2003—2017年地级市数据,运用工具变量法,对信息化、就业增长与人口流动之间的关系进行了实证检验,发现信息化确实显著促进了人口流动,而就业增长则是其中的中介机制。信息化对人口流动的影响在“胡焕庸线”两侧存在显著的差异,在西北侧的影响大于东南侧。加大对“胡焕庸线”西北侧信息基础设施的建设,是突破“胡焕庸线”的有效途径。

This paper formulated a theoretical framework and mechanism of the influence of informationization on population mobility.Based on the data of prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2017,it conducted an empirical test on the relationship between informationization,employment growth and population mobility by using the instrumental variable method.Results showed that informatization does promote population mobility,and the intermediary mechanism is the employment growth brought by the extensive application of information and communication technology in the economy and society.In addition,the impact of informatization on population mobility is significantly different on both sides of the"Hu Line"---the impact on the northwest side is greater than that on the southeast side.Therefore,an increase of the investment in the information infrastructure in the northwest is an effective path to break through the"Hu Line".