基于多灰色模型对比的累计前景理论的铁路路线方案优选

Optimization of railway route scheme based on comparison of multi-grey models and cumulative prospect theory

为对建设时间不确定情况下的铁路线路方案进行准确选择,针对确定型分析方法只能对决策局势进行静态分析,且忽视了人的非理性主观意识影响的不足。构建多灰色模型对比的累计前景理论模型,对不同时间点下的铁路线路方案进行优选决策。通过多模型对实际值进行模拟,选取模拟精度最高模型对优选决策指标体系中的灰色指标进行预测。以累计前景理论分析人为非理性因素对方案优选决策的不确定性影响,建立各方案累计综合前景值最大化的动态指标权重的约束非线性模型,通过模型求解得到各铁路线路方案的综合前景值,以此为依据对铁路线路方案进行了优选决策。例证表明,采用多灰色模型对比的累计前景理论进行多时间点铁路方案优选决策时,最优方案由2023年的4号方案变为2025年的2号方案。说明不同时间点下,灰色指标的动态变化影响了方案之间的优势关系。证明累计前景理论对于此类随时间而发生局势变化的多目标优选决策问题具有较强的处理能力,分析结果也更为科学合理。

In order to accurately select the railway route scheme under the condition of uncertain construction time,aiming at the deterministic analysis method can only carry out static analysis on the decision-making situation and ignores the deficiency of the influence of human irrational subjective consciousness.A cumulative prospect theory model of multi-gray model comparison was constructed to optimize the railway route scheme at different time points in this paper.The actual value wassimulated by multiple models,and the model with the highest simulation accuracy would beselected to predict the grey index in the optimization decision index system.Based on the cumulative prospect theory,this paper analyzedthe uncertain influence of man-made irrational factors on the scheme optimization decision,established a constrained nonlinear model for maximizing the dynamic index weight of the cumulative comprehensive prospect value of each scheme,and obtained the comprehensive prospect value of each railway routes scheme by solving the model.Based on this,the optimal decision was made to the railway route scheme.The example showed that when the cumulative prospect theory of multi-gray model wasused to make the optimal decision of multi-time point railway scheme,the optimal scheme changedfrom the 4#scheme in 2023 to the 2#scheme in 2025.It shows that the dynamic change of grey index affects the dominant relationship between schemes at different time points.It proves that the cumulative prospect theory has a strong processing capacity for this kind of multi-objective optimization decision-making problem with time-varying situations,and the analysis results are more scientific and reasonable.