基于最优货币区理论的东盟10+3货币一体化可行性研究

Feasibility Study of ASEAN 10+3 Monetary Integration Based on Optimal Currency Area Theory

基于最优货币区理论,从要素市场的流动性、经济开放度、产品多样化程度、通货膨胀率和国际金融一体化的程度对东盟10+3经济区域内的趋同性指标进行分析,由此判断东盟10+3经济区货币一体化的可行性。东盟10+3经济区货币一体化存在的障碍包括要素流动性不足、经济发展水平差异过大、金融体制差异过大。东盟10+3货币一体化的可行性建议包括建立一个统一的公开市场、中国在各国之间开展“10+3”经济互助、推进国际金融一体化。

Based on OCA theory,this paper analyses the convergence index in ASEAN 10+3 economic region from the aspects of factor market liquidity,economic openness,product diversification,inflation rate and the degree of international financial integration.It judges the feasibility of monetary integration in ASEAN 10+3 economic region and points out the goods in ASEAN 10+3 economic region.The paper points out the obstacles of monetary integration in ASEAN 10+3 economic zone:insufficient factor liquidity,great difference in economic development level and great difference in financial system.It also puts forward feasible proposals for asean“10+3”monetary integration:establishing a unified open market,China carrying out“10+3”economic mutual assistance among countries,and promoting international financial integration.