关税变动对中美汽车价值链的影响——基于GTAP模型的分析

The Impacts of Trade Tariffs on the Automotive Value Chain in the U.S.and China:An Analysis Based on GTAP Model

汽车行业是一个高度全球化的行业,也是国民经济的支柱行业之一。针对贸易中关税增加对汽车价值链及当地经济的影响,文章采用一般均衡模型GTAP进行了定量分析。研究表明,当贸易中的一方就对方汽车产胡加征关税时,本地汽车产晶的价值增值虽能提振,但对方进行反制加征关税后,会形成双输局面。同时,当贸易战双方互加征关税,原有双边贸易会发生明显转移。因此,政策制定者对特定行业产岛加征关税时,需要在行业的本地价值增值与宏观经济指标的减少之间做出权衡。为保护本地汽车工业,政府片面使用进口关税的效果有限。更有利的方式可能是采取非关稅壁垒来间接限制汽车产品的进口。

The automotive industry is highly globalized,in which global brand names are actively engaged in worldwide manufacturing and operation through complicated supply chains.The increase of tariffs negatively impacts global trade and flow of vehicles and components,increases enterprises'production costs,and diminishes consumers'welfare.This paper uses the widely accepted GTAP model to quantitatively analyze the impact of tariffs on the local economy and the automotive value chain in the U.S.and China.The study shows when either country of two initiates tariffs on automobile products imported from the other country,no matter what retaliatory tariffs imposed by the other government as a countermeasure,both countries experience negative impacts in terms of GDP and welfare.Although retaliatory tariffs may improve local trade balance,the effect is minimal.In the meantime,a significant trade diversion effect can be observed,and other countries benefit from the trade war.The implication of our research indicates that when increasing tariffs on certain products,policymakers need to make a trade-off decision between different indices.