流动性幻觉与高杠杆率之谜

Liquidity Illusion and High Leverage Ratio Dilemma

本文研究信用货币体系下流动性不足导致的过度投资和高杠杆率问题。文章将货币引入到消费者与银行互动的三期经济框架中,构建信用货币体系下的偏好冲击与流动性冲击模型,阐明消费者的购买力、经济投资效率和杠杆率都在一定程度上取决于流动性背后的价值支撑,而非仅由流动性的名义数量决定。本文指出,流动性的价值支撑主要体现为央行储备资产和政府财政收入,其水平决定了经济体系内短期消费的支付能力,流动性的价值支撑不足会导致过度投资和高杠杆率。进一步基于中国数据的实证分析验证了理论模型的主要结论。本文研究结果提示,在经济双循环体系下,货币政策与财政政策的协调配合尤为重要,维持央行储备资产规模并保持合理税率水平可以缓解流动性的价值支撑不足和高杠杆率问题。

The Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China reveals significant attention to stabilizing the financial system and buttressing the bottom line of systematic risks.Excessive leverage is a potential factor that triggers systemic risks in economic operations,so it is necessary to take a deeper investigation into it.In response to China's rising leverage in recent years,studies have attempted to find its causes from several perspectives,but have yet failed to explain the essential reasons for the formation of leverage resulting from lack of liquidity under the credit currency system.Moreover,the obvious reverse trend between the leverage ratio and the value support of liquidity during 1999 to 2018 has been undervalued by the academia and lacks theoretical explanation.To this end,this paper constructs a model of preference shocks and liquidity shocks under the credit currency system,deduces the relationship between the value support of liquidity and the formation mechanism of leverage,explains the nature and impact of insufficient liquidity under the credit currency system,and clarifies that the high leverage accompanying insufficient liquidity is caused by the lack of value support of liquidity.Insufficient value support of liquidity depresses economic entity's ability to pay for short-term consumption and stimulates long-term investment.Over-investment brings about the impulse to borrow,thus driving the increase in leverage.This paper proposes that the value support of liquidity depends on the real value of the currency that can be used for payment when the economic entities need to purchase goods and services.From a national perspective,the currency issued by the central bank is its debt held on behalf of the country,whose value is determined by the debtor's future cash flow(the country's fiscal revenue)and the guarantees provided by the debtor(the reserve assets held by the central bank).In this sense,real liquidity is supported by central bank's reserve assets and government's fiscal revenue.More importantly,the imbalance between the supply and the demand of value support of liquidity can cause the leverage ratio to rise,which may in turn bring about large fluctuations in the economy and even trigger a financial crisis.Therefore,it is necessary to change the motivation and the logic of macro policy implementation.Increasing the number of nominal currencies cannot solve the leverage problem caused by the lack of value support of liquidity.Only by increasing the number of reserve assets corresponding to the issued currency to inject additional value support of liquidity can the liquidity shortage dilemma be solved.Only by solving the constraints imposed by the lack of value support of liquidity on the sustained and healthy economic development can China achieve its strategic goal of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.To solve the problem of insufficient value support of liquidity supply,it is essential to re-examine the coordination mechanism of the monetary policy and the fiscal policy under the dual-cycle system.In the domestic big cycle,the problem of excessive investment caused by the shortage of value support of liquidity has affected the smoothness of consumer consumption,which is in conflict with China's goal of boosting domestic demand.To maintain ample value support of liquidity in the whole society,fiscal policies must balance tax rates and maintain reasonable tax revenues.Large-scale and continuous tax cuts cannot be over emphasized.Monetary policy needs to pay attention to both nominal liquidity and the value support of liquidity.In the domestic and international dual cycle,it is necessary to adhere to the concept of openness and expand the scale of international trade.The foreign exchange income from international trade increases central bank's base currency investment through foreign exchange funds and converts into central bank's reserve assets,both of which enhances the value support of liquidity.Since exports are not completely endogenous and there is uncertainty in foreign exchange income,the changes in the monetary base input of the foreign exchange account channel should be closely monitored,and reserve requirements and open market operations should be used timely to hedge its impact.In addition,although the increase in reserve assets can increase the value support of liquidity,there is an optimal scale.Excessive reserve assets will lead to insufficient domestic consumption and cause welfare losses.In this condition,taxes can be reduced appropriately to increase consumption and improve welfare while maintaining a reasonable level of value support of liquidity.In summary,forming a good coordination between the monetary policy and the fiscal policy in the control of the value support of liquidity can stabilize the macro-leverage ratio from the root cause and improve the overall social welfare.