煤制烯烃项目技术经济敏感性分析及对策

Technical and economic sensitivity analysis and measures of coal to olefin project

介绍了典型煤制烯烃项目工艺流程及主要工艺技术,基于建设规模、产品方案基本相当的两家煤制烯烃工厂建设及运营情况,结合某拟建煤制烯烃项目的原料/燃料煤价及主要产品价格双因素和建设投资单因素敏感性分析,对比了拟建项目与两家运行工厂的成本,指出通过控制煤资源或谈判争取有竞争力的原料/燃料煤价、优化设计有效降低建设投资、优化技术及产品方案等项目实施建议对策,可使拟建煤制烯烃项目的全投资内部收益率IRR(税前)满足基准收益率要求。

The process and main process technologies of typical coal to olefin project were introduced.Based on the construction and operation of two coal to olefin plants with basically same construction scale and product scheme,combined with the sensitivity analysis of raw material/fuel coal price and main product price of a proposed coal to olefin project and construction investment,the costs of the proposed project and two operating plants were compared and analyzed.It was pointed out that the total internal rate of return(pre-tax)of the proposed coal to olefin project could meet the requirements of the benchmark rate of return by controlling coal resources,negotiating for competitive raw material/fuel coal price and design optimization to effectively reduce the construction investment.